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"蒜你狠"會卷土重來嗎?專家:或會繼續小幅上漲
作者:黃俊毅 來源:經濟日報 時間:2019-5-30 9:41:55 點擊數:(0)0

大蒜消費群體相對固定,消費彈性小,經過多年發展,生產量和消費量已相對均衡,形成了種植區域相對集中、市場格局相對穩定的產銷特征

在一些產區,儲存大蒜的熱潮已開始出現,少數從未經營過大蒜的商戶也開始大量儲蒜,專家提醒,蒜農蒜商千萬不要惜售

5月28日,北京新發地農副產品批發市場大蒜批發平均價為8元/公斤,比1月1日的4.5元/公斤上漲77.8%。不少人驚呼,“蒜你狠”卷土重來。

那么,大蒜價格是否會迎來新一輪非理性上漲呢?

“近期蒜價恢復性上漲屬市場正常調節。今年大蒜價格高于去年,但上漲空間有限。”剛從大蒜主產區之一山東省蘭陵縣實地調研回京的中國農業科學院農業信息研究所研究員孔繁濤如是說。

蘭陵縣大蒜目前正進入收獲期。孔繁濤5月27日在蘭陵縣田間看到,“土蒜”地頭收購價格在每公斤3.6元至4.0元之間。基于今年蒜薹良好的市場行情,農民對大蒜后市行情普遍看好。

在孔繁濤看來,大蒜價格雖然已經連續9個月上漲,但總體仍屬低位運行階段。5月份(截至5月22日)農業農村部重點監測的全國農副產品批發市場每公斤大蒜均價為6.75元,較4月份低0.8%,同比上漲45.8%,但較近3年同期平均價仍低22.0%,較近5年同期平均價仍低2.9%。

大蒜耐儲,交易屬于跨期銷售,市場呈現明顯多年周期性。本輪周期自2017年6月份新蒜季開始價格出現斷崖式下跌,2017年至2018年冷庫蒜銷售期價格持續低位運行,2018年新蒜季繼續下跌,個別產區大蒜價格一度跌破10年來最低點。2018年8月份以后,價格開始緩慢回升。進入2019年,受不利天氣、流通及減種預期影響,蒜價上漲速度加快,但仍處近年較低水平。

“大蒜價格恢復性上漲,主要原因是種植面積減少。”農業農村部蔬菜市場分析預警團隊首席分析師張晶說。

大蒜產品特色突出,消費群體相對固定,消費彈性小,經過多年發展,生產量和消費量已相對均衡,形成了種植區域相對集中、市場格局相對穩定的產銷特征。從近10年來市場行情分析看,大蒜價格呈現出明顯的周期性波動,基本形成了3年一個波段、6年一個大循環的“蒜周期”。目前,大蒜價格就處于新一輪周期恢復上漲的波動階段,主要原因是大蒜種植面積明顯減少。受2017年和2018年大蒜種植面積持續增長,蒜價大幅下跌影響,2019年大蒜種植面積明顯縮減。主產區山東省金鄉縣聯合中國農業科學院農業資源與農業區劃研究所遙感監測團隊在今年5月17日發布的監測結果顯示,2019年全國大蒜主產區11個省份102個縣(市、區)種植面積為598.69萬畝,其中金鄉縣52.39萬畝,同比減少18.8%。綜合農業農村部蔬菜市場信息分析預警團隊日常監測調度情況,張晶估計2019年全國大蒜減種幅度在15%左右。

大蒜減種了15%,是否意味著后市價格還將繼續大漲呢?

孔繁濤告訴記者,從近期調研情況看,主產區大蒜單產水平或將較往年有所提高。雖然個別產區可能出現各類不利情況,但去年冬天和今年春天整體天氣情況有利于大蒜生長。此外,2018年庫存蒜余量較高,高位庫存使市場承壓,后期蒜價上漲空間有限。

張晶表示,今年大蒜種植面積減少,但平均單產仍將處于較高水平,總產量不會低于常年平均值。預計后市蒜價可能會繼續小幅上漲,但上行空間有限。

值得注意的是,在一些產區,儲存大蒜的熱潮已開始出現,少數從未經營過大蒜的商戶也開始大量儲蒜。

“蒜價后期繼續上漲的空間很有限。已經入庫的鮮蒜面臨較大的銷售壓力,有經驗的商戶現在都不敢出手收儲。”北京新發地農副產品批發市場統計部經理劉通說。他提醒,蒜農蒜商千萬不要惜售,趁著現在行情不錯,應抓緊變現。

【責任編輯:馬越

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