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國際油價劇震蕩后 國內成品油價“踩線”微漲
作者:胡健 來源:每日經濟新聞 時間:2019-5-28 17:24:23 點擊數:(0)0

5月27日,國家發改委官網發布消息,根據近期國際市場油價變化情況,按照現行成品油價格形成機制,自2019年5月27日24時起,上調國內汽、柴油(標準品,下同)價格。

此次成品油價調整幅度為:汽、柴油均上調50元/噸,折合升價92號汽油、0號柴油均上調0.04元/升。

有機構測算,經過本輪零售限價上調,本年度國內成品油零售限價已經歷11次調整,其中8次上調,2次下調,1次擱淺。漲跌互抵后,汽油累計上調幅度達850元/噸,柴油累計上調幅度達835元/噸;折合成升價,92號汽油累計上調0.67元,0號柴油累計上調0.71元。

每日經濟新聞》記者注意到,卓創資訊監測模型顯示,新周期初始,原油變化率或處于負值區間內震蕩,下輪調價窗口即6月11日24時,國內成品油零售限價存在下調的可能。

國際油價近期現“過山車”走勢

在本輪計價周期之初,受沙特原油管線遭無人機襲擊、美伊地緣政治因素趨緊等影響,原油價格一度上漲。不過此后由于原油庫存增加、全球經濟狀況表現不佳,到周期末原油價格又出現大跌。

尤其是在5月23日,紐約商品交易所7月交貨的輕質原油期貨價格跌破每桶60美元關鍵點位,創下2018年年底以來最大單日跌幅,收盤價為今年3月中旬以來的最低水平。

截至當天收盤時,紐約商品交易所7月交貨的輕質原油期貨價格下跌3.51美元,收于每桶57.91美元,跌幅為5.71%。7月交貨的倫敦布倫特原油期貨價格下跌3.23美元,收于每桶67.76美元,跌幅為4.55%。

在多空因素綜合影響下,本輪計價周期內國際油價寬幅震蕩,最終參考的原油變化率落在正值區間內。截至國內第10個工作日,參考的原油變化率為1.28%,剛好滿足發改委規定的50元/噸調價紅線。

在本次調價政策落地后,油箱容量為50升的家用轎車,加滿一箱92號汽油將較之前多花2元,出行成本小幅增加。

以月跑2000公里、百公里油耗為8升的小型私家車為例,到下次調價窗口開啟(6月11日24時)之前的半個月時間內,消費者用油成本將增加3.2元左右。

物流行業成本也將上漲。以月跑10000公里,百公里油耗38升的斯太爾重型卡車為例,未來半個月內,單輛車的燃油成本將增加76元左右。

機構預測原油后勢將延續震蕩

此前在5月19日,參與減產協議的歐佩克(石油輸出國組織)產油國在沙特舉行了部長級減產監督會議。在會議上,沙特能源部長法利赫表示,目前產油國之間已經形成了共識,今年下半年將繼續降低原油的庫存。此外,歐佩克將于6月25日~26日在奧地利維也納召開半年度會議,屆時將決定是否再次延長減產協議的期限。

金聯創分析師韓正己認為,此前,由于歐佩克的減產以及美伊關系的惡化,市場的注意力更多集中在原油供應端的收緊上,從而推動了油價的上漲。但隨著市場的關注焦點漸漸來到需求端,需求增長放緩加之美國原油產量及庫存齊增,令油價承受了巨大的下行壓力。

韓正己表示,根據當前市場來看,未來數月供需平衡的不確定性可能會進一步放大,短期內原油可能將繼續呈現弱勢震蕩的態勢。

卓創資訊認為,中東局勢暫時趨緩,多頭少了最主要的炒作熱點,經濟下滑和股市疲軟推動市場情緒從多向空發生轉變。當然,減產若繼續維持將依然為油價提供較為強勁的底部支撐。

卓創資訊分析認為,原油超跌往往帶來一定程度的反彈,但目前市場觀望心態濃厚,另外,高企的美國原油庫存也令市場擔憂。

綜合來看,下一周期原油走勢恐依舊疲軟,不排除市場操作情緒不佳導致繼續下跌的可能。卓創資訊監測模型顯示,新周期初始,原油變化率或處于負值區間內震蕩,下輪調價窗口即6月11日24時,國內成品油零售限價存在下調的可能。

【責任編輯:路麗莎

關鍵字:國際油價 國內成品油價 延續震蕩

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